Summary

The City Council on December 9, 2024, voted unanimously to approve budget guidance to the general government and the school division for Fiscal Year 2026. The draft guidance was amended to avoid specifying a target tax rate in light of the uncertainties associated with the incoming federal administration, state aid from Virginia, and the impact of the City’s growth on infrastructure, including the schools.
Depending on how much state aid Falls Church City Public Schools (FCCPS) ultimately receive from Virginia, the transfer from the City to the schools to fund their budget could increase year over year by as much as 9.4%.
This increase is due, in part, to growth in student enrollment by an estimated 159 students for the 2025-2026 school year. However, estimates from George Mason’s Stephen S. Fuller Institute indicate that there could be as many as 283 new students as a result of the opening of new multifamily buildings at West Falls, Broad and Washington, and Founders Row II.

Budget guidance approved

The City Council approved its budget guidance to the City Manager and the School Board and Superintendent of Schools at its December 9, 2024, meeting. [See Pulse post, FY2026 City Budget Planning Expects 5.5-6% Revenue Growth Yet Projects $2 Million Shortfall, December 16, 2024, for details.]

Joint City Council – School Board meeting

A week before its December 9 vote on budget guidance, the City Council held its annual joint budget meeting with the Falls Church School Board and Superintendent Dr. Peter Noonan. Together, the Board and Council reviewed the school division’s enrollment projections and resource needs for the 2025-2026 school year.

City Manager Wyatt Shields and Chief Financial Officer Kiran Bawa also shared the general government’s FY2025 revenue for the first quarter and revenue and expense forecasts for FY2026. [See Pulse post, FY2026 City Budget Planning Expects 5.5-6% Revenue Growth Yet Projects $2 Million Shortfall.]

Setting Falls Church apart and breaking enrollment records

In his presentation, Dr. Noonan noted that “the schools help set Falls Church apart” from the rest of the region and give the City much about which to be proud. He noted that Falls Church City Public Schools (FCCPS) rank number one in Virginia, number two in the Washington, DC metropolitan area, and number three in best places to teach in Virginia. Dr. Noonan also highlighted the school system’s long support of and progress in the International Baccalaureate program.

Dr. Noonan indicated that enrollment numbers for FCCPS are breaking records across the board, except for students being homeschooled and those paying tuition to attend the City’s schools where the numbers are decreasing. FCCPS experienced its highest total enrollment to date in the current school year; as of September 30, 2024, there were 2,714 students in the system, an increase of 80 students from 2023. “We did have a pandemic drop off and are now growing again,” he said.

The source for all the charts that follow is the FY2026 Fiscal Forecast, Falls Church City Public Schools, presentation given during the School Board/City Council Joint Meeting, December 2, 2024.

FCCPS enrollment table from 2019 to 2025 - School growth

FCCPS enrollment from 2000 to 2025, breakdown by grade.

Highest poverty level and 1 in 4 have special needs

The City is also seeing the highest poverty level ever at 13% of the student body as measured by the number of applications for free and reduced lunch. The number of students needing support in English as a second language grew to a record 184, nearly 7% of the enrollment.

Further, students with disabilities account for 14.3% of the school population, and an additional 9.3% of students with disabilities now have 504 plans, which detail specific accommodations to help ensure they have equal access to education within a general education classroom. “A quarter of our students have special needs,” Dr. Noonan said.

Projecting future enrollment with and without changes in housing stock

In estimating the enrollment for the FY2026 budget and 2025-2026 school year, the City looks, as it has in the past, to the Demographics Research Group (the Weldon Cooper Center) at the University of Virginia and the Stephen S. Fuller Institute at The Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University. (Enrollment forecasts were discussed in the Pulse post 15% Enrollment Growth By 2030 Projected For City Schools, December 8, 2023.)

The Cooper Center’s projections are used by the state to allocate sales taxes. Weldon Cooper’s projections show an increase of 49 students for the coming school year, but their projections do not include the impact of changes in local housing, Dr. Noonan explained. In Falls Church, that impact will be significant, he said – housing currently constructed or under construction includes an additional 1,124 units not previously included in enrollment projections. Those developments are:

West Falls (approximately 126 units of condominiums and approximately 400 units of multi-family traditional and “micro” apartments),
Broad and Washington (includes multifamily rental apartments with 318 units), and
Founders Row II (includes multifamily rental apartments with 280 units).

Higher numbers from Stephen S. Fuller Institute

Considering the increase in housing in the City, the Stephen S. Fuller Institute anticipates a much larger increase in school enrollment as these units are occupied. Dr. Keith Waters, Assistant Director, Center for Regional Analysis and Director, Stephen S. Fuller Institute, projects as many as 283 new students in the Falls Church system and said that number “could go much higher.” In his briefing to the School Board and City Council, Dr. Waters said, “I am somewhat concerned that maybe I’ve even underestimated it.”

“Effectively, you are moving back to pre-pandemic grade progression ratios at the same time that quite a bit of housing stock is coming online,” Dr. Waters continued. “So you have two forces moving at the same time.” He pointed to the fact that enrollment increased last year without new housing stock becoming available.

Dr. Waters clarified that the largest variation in student population will come from apartments and condominiums in multifamily buildings. “There is not that much turnover in single-family homes,” he said; the “big swing” is from multifamily homes.

Budgeting from the middle of the combined enrollment forecasts

Looking at potential enrollment from a variety of factors affecting it, Dr. Waters said his “best guess” is that there will be an increase of 159 students in the coming school and budget year for a total enrollment of 2,873, though it was clear from his presentation that a higher number will not surprise him. The 159 figure is represented by the orange line in the chart below and is the current basis for the schools’ FY2026 budget planning. The gray line results from the City’s pre-pandemic student generation rate; the blue line shows Weldon Cooper’s numbers; and the black line provides actual enrollment figures.

Dr. Waters said the schools have the physical infrastructure to accommodate new students in these numbers. Superintendent Noonan added, “I don’t see space as an issue; we have lots of strategies to use space effectively.”

However, in response to School Board and City Council member questions, Dr. Waters urged tracking monthly enrollment numbers closely to ensure there are enough teachers. “Monthly increases in enrollment will give you a strong sense of the [student] generation rate,” he said.

Dr. Waters added that he anticipates the continued “clampdown on immigration” by the federal government might lessen pressure on school enrollment as it has for the last 11 years. What insulates Falls Church from this and other external factors, though, is “the City’s desirability” as a place to live, he said.

“Baked in” expenses for FY2026

In detailing FCCPS’s anticipated expenses and revenues for the coming fiscal year, Dr. Noonan said the schools’ budget has more clarity as the budgeting process begins this year than in the past because several items are “baked in.”

Items around which there is certainty include last year’s collective bargaining agreement (CBA) with school employees. FCCPS must increase salaries for all employees by about 5%, which includes step and cost-of-living increases. To remain competitive for the region, Dr. Noonan said these increases must be at least 5%. He noted that Fairfax County is budgeting for a 7% increase and Loudon, Prince William, and Arlington Counties and the City of Alexandria for 8% to 9% increases for their employees. FCCPS also anticipates a 10% increase in the cost of health insurance.

Enrollment growth means 11 more staff needed

FCCPS enrollment growth-related expenses

Based on an increase in the student population of 159, Dr. Noonan projected the following growth in enrollment expenses shown in the chart below to maintain class size and services. Enrollment growth will require an additional 11 staff positions.

The Superintendent described as enhancements the new items the school division needs as a result of enrollment growth.

Dr. Noonan further cited the following current obligations that need to be funded in FY2026.

Revenue outlook and proposed City transfer to FCCPS

Turning to the schools’ revenue outlook for FY2026, Dr. Noonan expects federal dollars based on entitlement grants to go down by about $1,800. If Virginia holds to the second year of the budget approved last year, FCCPS would receive an increase of $695,809 in state aid and sales tax. “If we don’t get state aid dollars, the budget becomes more problematic,” he said.

With state aid, FCCPS will need an increase in the transfer from the City of 8.1% to fund everything the school division wants to fund; without state aid, the transfer would need to increase by 9.4%. If enhancements are cut from FCCPS plans and state aid is provided, the transfer from the City needs to increase by 7.5%; without the state aid, the transfer would have to go up 8.8%. The governor will present his budget on December 18, which should provide an indication whether FCCPS can expect state funding and how much.

Overall, Dr. Noonan, who plans to retire in June 2025, said the schools need an additional $4.96 million to meet obligations. “This is not an insignificant amount of money. …But think about this in terms of the growth we are experiencing,” he urged. “I hope you hear the excitement that we all have about this growth – I think we’re really sort of jazzed about it and think that adding more kids to our schools just makes for a more vibrant community, gives us opportunities to do some things that we might not have been able to do with the smaller population, and really think that this is great for the City of Falls Church.”

He concluded his presentation by noting that the schools are about three months ahead of the City Council and general government in preparing their budget. Dr. Noonan will present his proposed budget to the School Board on January 14, 2025. The requested schools budget will be presented by the School Board to the City Council on March 24, at the same time the City Manager will first present the general government’s budget to the Council. The final budget is scheduled to be adopted in mid-May.